Search
About Us
Contact Us
Join Our Mailing List
Press Room







Reforms and Solvency
Overview 
Measures for Restoring Solvency 
Comprehensive Reform Plans 
Additional Resources 


Overview

At various points throughout its history, lawmakers from across the ideological spectrum have come together to ensure that Social Security is able to maintain its promise to future generations. Most recently, in the early 1980s, a commission appointed by Ronald Reagan and led by Alan Greenspan recommended a package of reforms to restore solvency and build up reserves for the future.

In large part due to the effectiveness of those reforms, a shortfall isn't projected until the year 2041 according to Social Security's trustees, or a decade later according to the Congressional Budget Office. Because the shortfall occurs so far in the future, immediate changes to the program may not be warranted. Critical information about the economy and population 38 years from now is extremely difficult to predict, and many observers believe we should wait until we have a better understanding of the future before making any changes to the program that might hinder future policymakers.

Even if we were to address Social Security's projected shortfall today, however, the problem is quite manageable, despite claims that the projected shortfall is too big to repair or could only be fixed through massive and unpopular tax increases. Policymakers have a wide range of measures available that can increase revenue and reduce costs for the program without placing an excessive burden on any one part of the population.


 

 

Measures for Restoring Solvency

Raising or eliminating the cap on taxable income
Currently, earnings over and above $90,000 don't get taxed for Social Security. That upper limit increases each year depending on how much the nation's average wages increase. While that level used to cover about 90 percent of all earnings, faster wage growth for high earners in recent years means the limit only covers about 85 percent of all earnings. This limit could be gradually increased to its former level over time, meaning more revenue for the program. A more extreme version of the previous measure, taxing 100 percent of earnings at the current rate, would all but eliminate the program's long-term deficit.

Dedicating a revised estate tax to Social Security
The estate tax, a tax on very large inheritances, is set to be elminated by 2009 and then reinstated in 2010 unless Congress makes repeal permanent. Instead of repealing the tax, the revenue it brings in could be used to help make up the Social Security shortfall.

Changing the COLA
Annual Social Security benefits are now increased each year to keep pace with inflation, a provision known as the cost-of-living-adjustment (COLA). Changes to this measure would decrease Social Security costs by reducing the purchasing power of benefits for retirees as they grow older. One way to implement this measure without significantly affecting the value of benefits would be switching to another measure (the "chained" index) for calculating inflation that many analysts consider more accurate.

Increasing the retirement age
Social Security's normal retirement age is set to gradually rise to 67 for retirees born in 1960 and after. However, some observers have suggested the retirement age should be pushed back even further. They argue that this is a fair way to reduce the program's costs, since the fact that people are living longer is partly to blame for the projected shortfall. However, it is important to recognize that different groups of workers would be affected in different ways by a later retirement age. While white-collar workers may not mind delaying retirement, this may not be an option for low-income workers in physically demanding occupations.

Any look at raising the retirement age must also consider how to ensure that older workers have rewarding jobs available to them. Some experts argue that the response to increasing life-expectancy is not removing retirees' option to receive Social Security at the current age, but in creating incentives for more retirees to delay benefits and increase their savings.

Diversifying the trust fund portfolio
While Social Security's trust funds are now invested exclusively in special government bonds, the government could improve the returns on that investment by investing part of the trust funds on the private market. Instead of subjecting individuals to the market fluctuations and high expenses related to personal accounts, the government would bear this risk and greatly reduce expenses by investing the funds all at once. However, this approach has raised questions about the political implications of large scale government investment in the stock market.

Extending Social Security to workers who don't participate in the program
While Social Security is nearly universal, about a quarter of the nation's state and local government employees still do not pay into the system, a lingering effect of the early practice of allowing states and localities to opt out of the system. New revenues could be obtained by requiring coverage for all new hires in these positions going forward.

These and similar measures can be easily drawn upon to restore long-term solvency to the program, if not today, then in the future when the projected deficit is better understood.


 

 

Comprehensive Reform Plans

 
Meeting Social Security’s Long-Range Shortfall
Robert M. Ball, The Century Foundation, 9/5/2006
Long-time Social Security Commissioner Ball presents a simple plan for restoring long-term financial balance to Social Security while preserving the program's structure and value.
Download in PDF format
Social Security Plus
Robert M. Ball, Campaign for America's Future, 12/1/2004
This two-part plan restores Social Security to long-term (75-year) balance and establishes a simple, low-cost way for individuals to set up personal savings accounts supplemental to Social Security.
Link to Report (PDF)
Saving Social Security: A Balanced Approach
Peter A. Diamond, Peter R. Orszag, The Brookings Institution, 2/1/2004
Two of the nation’s foremost economists propose a plan to restore long-term financial balance to the program while preserving its core social insurance role. Read a summary (PDF).
Order Online

 

Additional Resources

 
Long-Range Financial Effects of Several Provisions on Social Security's Solvency
Alice H. Wade, Chris Chaplain, Social Security Administration, 2/24/2005
Long-range estimates of the effects on trust fund solvency and operations of several provisions, from Social Security's chief actuary.
Link to Report (PDF)
Options to Balance Social Security Funds Over the Next 75 Years
John Lavery, Virginia Reno, National Academy of Social Insurance, 2/1/2005
Exploring different options for reducing the program's long-term shortfall.
Link to Issue Brief (PDF)
Removing the Social Security Earnings Cap Virtually Eliminates Funding Gap
Josh Bivens, Economic Policy Institute, 2/17/2005
SSA actuarial estimates show that eliminating the cap would virtually eliminate the projected 75-year funding shortfall.
Link to Issue Brief
Investing the Social Security Trust Funds in Stocks
The Century Foundation, 3/1/1999
The effects of investing Social Security revenues in the stock market. with particular attention paid to the ability of such investments to reduce the short-fall in revenues predicted within the next 30 years.
Download in PDF format
Investing the Social Security Trust Funds in Equities
Alicia Munnell, Pierluigi Balduzzi, AARP, 3/1/1998
Investment of the Social Security trust fund reserves in corporate equities is, on balance, a reasonable and feasible strategy.
Link to Paper (PDF)

 



Publications - Commentary - Related Research - Online Resources - Experts - Featured Issues - Home
Search - About Us - Contact Us - Join Our Mailing List - Press Room
Copyright 2010 The Century Foundation. Privacy Policy
Visit The Century Foundation Web site www.tcf.org